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All posts by Arnaud Villota

Feb 16th 2008, 12:17
Arnaud Villota 		SL Capital Exchange Archive » Irrational markets
Re: Irrational markets
I haven't sold any of my winner shares either. I have 5000 + 1000 bonus that I got for buying an extra 10K shares. I'm not about to sell either at these prices!

I am thinking that the same thing is happening here as happened to MECH once it hit the trading floor. I think any company that stays in IPO status for a while has initial investors who hope things will go quickly and when they don't they may find themselves strapped for cash and need to sell at a loss.
Feb 16th 2008, 18:23
Arnaud Villota 		General Investment Discussion » Conversion - when???
Re: Conversion - when???
/me woke up, heard "doubling money"!!!!

hmmm. looks around. doesn't see money doubling.

/me goes back to sleep.

p.s. good luck on the conversion. May it go swiftly!!! "I have the need for speed" (Topgun, whatever year!) (substitute trading for speed).
Feb 16th 2008, 18:38
Arnaud Villota 		SL Capital Exchange Archive » Irrational markets
Re: Irrational markets
What I'm smokin' is superior to banana peels! :)

But I don't quite agree with your valuation Ivan. On paper, yes, but potential? that is another story. I will be bold and declare publicly that I think MNM is worth more in the long run.

I see Utube and the way that it has gone, Microsoft's eventual hostile bid for Yahoo, etc., these are attempts at getting to the kinds of things that MNM is promoting, IMO.

btw, in reality I don't smoke, I drink Jack Daniels! So take this for what it may be worth! i.e. Am I drinking JD now, or will I imbibe after this post! It is yours to figure out. Enjoy.

On another note, I checked out your Wrestling site Ivan, very impressive! You guys do good work!
Feb 18th 2008, 15:43
Arnaud Villota 		SL Capital Exchange Archive » A minor announcement
A minor announcement
To current MECH investors and future MECH investors. I am making this announcement because I have had more than a 5% interest in MECH for the past few weeks. I just wanted to let everyone know that I have placed limited sell orders in my MECH position so I will eventually drop below the 5% "radar" once these shares are sold.

I am selling for personal reasons that relate to RL, not to MECH. I will still hold a hefty position in MECH but it will be well below the 5% level.

I just wanted to let anyone interested know that I am not "crashing" out of MECH. I have held tight waiting for this SLWallet conversion thing and now need some liquidity in RL.

Also, I will not sell below L$1.00.

MECH is solid and I still expect great things! It is just that things are happening in RL where I need more cash. The one thing I regret is that my dividend check will be a bit lower. :(.

Such is life.

Thanks.
Feb 18th 2008, 16:53
Arnaud Villota 		SL Capital Exchange Archive » A minor announcement
Re: A minor announcement
Good question. I guess it will depend on price. Right now I don't anticipate selling more than 45% of my shares, which is approximately 450K shares. Hopefully less. :)

If someone wishes to make an offer for a private block sell, I may be open to that as well. A private sell would have less of an effect on the open market.

IM me in world if there is interest in that.
Feb 18th 2008, 17:22
Arnaud Villota 		SL Capital Exchange Archive » Irrational markets
Re: Irrational markets
Gen, I respect your opinion, but how can anyone be making P/E judgments before the company even posts any earnings reports. I realize in SL the PE is almost the same as dividends, but my question holds, MNM hasn't been in business long enough to post dividends, so how can anyone make any judgements on valuation?

Thanks.
Feb 18th 2008, 19:39
Arnaud Villota 		SL Capital Exchange Archive » A minor announcement
Re: A minor announcement
I agree with you. I see that too which is too bad. But I won't sell at a loss. So I guess I will have to wait a bit longer.

Thanks.
Feb 19th 2008, 15:27
Arnaud Villota 		SL Capital Exchange Archive » Irrational markets
Re: Irrational markets
Ok, now my curiosity is really going. How do you three come up with your valuation of a company that is less than a month old on the trading floor. We have no income statement, no balance sheet, dividends haven't been paid yet. How do you come up with these magic numbers of what the stock should be worth?

Is it sophisticated analysis software, insider information, a dartboard, pulling numbers out of your .... wherever, or all of the above?

Also if you guys felt this strongly about the worth of the company, where were you during the IPO? That would have been a more appropriate time to bring this up given that you have as much information now as you did then. I apologize if I overlooked any relevant posts on the MNM forum that dealt with these conclusions. If I have please post the relevant urls.

Now, me thinks that your coments are being reflected in the current price. A lot of people who respect you guys are probaly selling at big losses right now because of your valuation. If you can justify it then I apologize and more power to the market, I lose a bundle, that's my price for ignorance. However, if you can't justify it then either state it or recant. Don't ask me for a number, I can't give you one yet, I don't have any numbers to base any kind of valuation on. So for now, I stick with the original IPO price. Time will tell whether or not it is the correct one. As far as I am concerned L$5.00/share is what the company is worth right now, no more, no less.

If you can justify your valuation, I would really like to know your methodology. Not as a challenge but as a learning experience. I don't know of any other method for valuing a company except the old fashioned way. Numbers. Without them, what have you got? If there are new methods for doing this type of analysis, without the numbers, I would really like to know. It has been a while since I've been out of school.

Thanks.
Feb 19th 2008, 17:29
Arnaud Villota 		SL Capital Exchange Archive » Irrational markets
Re: Irrational markets
To tell you the truth I missed the Microsoft IPO in 1986! I thought the only thing they were good for at that time was Flight Simulator! I loved it, but I couldn't afford to buy stock then, go figure! Whatever.

Anyway, my point is that Microsoft had finacials of some sort to back up it's IPO. That's RL. We exist in SL. The financials that are on a prospectus in SL should be taken with a grain of salt, granted, but without other numbers then the IPO price has to be accepted, unless, there is good reason not to! All that I am asking is that if you folks have good reason for another price, and that you did not pose your arguments during IPO, then come up with a valid analysis of why your valuaiton of the compnay at THIS POINT IN TIME is any differnet than at IPO.

That is all that I am asking.
Feb 19th 2008, 17:48
Arnaud Villota 		SL Capital Exchange Archive » Irrational markets
Re: Irrational markets
An addendum.

Gen I just read your Btw message. I am sorry but that is not accepatable. Good for you that you don't own shares in what you obviously perceive as a "shit" company, but your remarks are specious in my opinion. If you really felt that the price was too much during IPO, you should have said something. It is easy to do "hindsight analysis" especially when you have the power of self fullfilling prophecy. I don't think that that it is fair to the general investors (and I consider myself one of those, I do not claim to be an investing genius). If you see a problem, you should point it out right away, not after the fact!

Sorry, I may sound pissed, and I am. I think a lot of people respect your opinion and the others who are now pontificating, on what a high price MNM went for, on this forum and they are selling, stupidly imo, because of what you and others have said AFTER THE FACT! That is not good business in my opinion.

If you have insight during an IPO than by all means offer it! But please, after an IPO, no matter what you think, I believe it is more professional to hold on to your opinions rather than vent them, unless of course you vented them during IPO and want to play the "I told you so" game. I could buy that, I suppose.



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